Taiwan's Missing Millions
Friday May 21, by Jerome F. Keating
Cold Hard Numbers and the Pathology of the Waishengren
Millions are missing, yet no one is concerned. Millions are missing, yet no one accepts
responsibility. Millions are missing, yet all seem in denial. The Kuomintang
(KMT) and the People's First Party (PFP) continue to ignore their missing
millions and focus only on 30,000.
Millions of dollars? No, we'rere not referring to the missing millions of KMT party money,
though their lower rank party members should justifiably be concerned with who
has been able to buy what, where and why. The millions we refer to are
votes, the hard and fast tickets needed to win elections.
Numbers can be boring but they carry a truth. Percentages are deceptive; numbers don't
lie. If only three people vote and I get two of those votes, to say I got 66%
of the votes is better than saying I got two votes. So bear with this
examination of the numbers of Taiwan’s presidential elections of 1996, 2000 and 2004; they
are crucial to the questions of accountability, subsequent denial and
pathology.
Year | % of all eligible | |
1996 | 76% voted | 10,766,119 |
2000 | 82.69% voted | 12,659,393 |
2004 | 80.27 % voted | 12,914,422 |
Besides the admirable high percentage of voter turnout, simple arithmetic shows an
increase of 2,148,303 votes cast from 1996 to 2004. Who benefited? The
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) did, but their numbers show an increase far
greater than even the increase of votes. Look at the DPP results:
Year | DPP President/Vice President Candidates | Votes Received |
1996 | Peng Ming-min/Frank Hsieh | 2,274,586 |
2000 | Chen Shui-bian/Annette | 4,977,737 |
2004 | Chen Shui-bian/Annette | 6,471,970 |
In eight years, the DPP gained 4,197,384 votes.
What about KMT figures?
1996 KMT Candidates | Affiliation | Votes Received |
Lee Teng-hui/Lien Chan | KMT (won) | 5,813,699 |
Lin Yang-kang/Hau Pei-tsun | (KMT) Independent | 1,603,790 |
Chen Li-an/Wang Ching-feng | (KMT) Independent | 1,074,044 |
With two sets of KMT candidates running as independents in 1996, the KMT and its related candidates
received a total of 8,491,533 votes to the DPP’s 2,274,586.
2000 KMT Candidates | Affiliation | Votes Received |
Lien Chan/Vincent Siew | KMT | 2,925,513 |
James Soong/Chang | (KMT) Independent | 4,664,932 |
Lien and Soong’s combined votes in 2000 were 7,590,445
to the DPP’s 4,977,737; but the DPP won because of
their split. Other candidates got less than 1% or 91,211 votes.
After the election Soong broke from the KMT, formed the
PFP party.
In 2004, Lien/Soong on
a KMT/PFP ticket got 6,442,452 votes to the DPP’s 6,471,970.
These are the cold hard numbers. In the give and take of
eight years (four of which the KMT was in power and four of which it was not),
the KMT lost and/or failed to gain approximately 4,197,384 votes. Who then was
accountable?
In the year 2000, when Lien ran as the lead man, he took a
shellacking. Lee Teng-hui as party chairman took the responsibility for the
loss, but Soong’s defection from the party was the major cause. Still even if
Soong's votes were added to Lien's, the KMT vote total had already dropped by
900,000 plus votes. If the additional 1,890,000 votes cast that year were added
in, it would make the loss over 2,790,000.
Lee’s taking full blame for the losses in 2000 is
debatable. In 2004 when Lee could not be blamed, the KMT still dropped another
1,147, 993 votes. From where were they lost? From Lien's previous numbers? From
Soong's? No one has addressed this matter. Post election rhetoric has
completely avoided it and how four million plus votes were lost in eight years.
Accountability has been fogged over with rhetoric.
What rhetoric have we heard? First there were the insane
theories on how the assassination attempt was fake. Henry Lee the forensics
expert blew those out of the water. Then there was the insistence of a recount,
with a victory of only 30,000 surely the DPP had cheated somewhere. The
counting however was accurate and the recount proved only to be a distraction
wasting money and time. Then the rhetoric focused on the question of the high
number of invalid votes (300,000) surely they possessed the number that would
give the KMT the win. Again the results were futile; the greater number of
invalid votes favored Chen.
At this point one would have expected the rhetoric to adjust, but now two months
after the election, excuses still come. Lien and Soong insist there is no
justice, no truth; they deny their loss. When a political party loses over four
million votes in eight years in addition to losing two elections, it is time
for soul searching and not the blame game. The blame game however continues and
the denial begins to take on pathological proportions.
Denial
is no stranger to KMT history. It was over 40 years before they would admit
that the “Communists bandits” of Mainland had won the minds and hearts of the
people there. In 1991 the KMT publicly gave up their dream of retaking the
Mainland. It was almost 50 years before they could admit to and offer a public
apology for the slaughter of innocents in the 2/28 affair.
It is a pathology fostered by a sense of entitlement and privilege from a past era
when the KMT ruled Taiwan as a one-party state.
It is a colonial pathology; the pathology of waishengren (outsiders) that have no
sense of localization and look down on the local people. It is a pathology
where their presidential candidate in 2004 could only mount a negative campaign
with no positive programs or vision for Taiwan.
It
is pathology that led KMT TV stations to falsely report election results,
pretending Lien and Soong were in the lead. This gave hope to their loyal
followers but finally the inflated 100,000-vote lead could no longer be
substantiated by fact. When the real return numbers finally caught up with them
in the last hour of reporting they had to give up the facade. Even then instead
of coming clean, the explanation and response of the leadership was "We were
cheated."
It
is a pathology that along with the scam of the TV reporting suggests that their
pre-election polls were also inflated figures. That could explain how on the
evening of the election before any votes were even cast; the KMT leaders were
already making excuses that Chen would use the assassination attempt to deny
them their due votes.
Such
a pathology of blind fanatical denial and entitlement even creates speculation
that the shooter in the assassination attempt could easily have been a deranged
KMT follower who wanted to guarantee the election for his entitled side.
This
is a pathology that will not face the fact that the KMT Titanic has struck
three icebergs with the 2000 presidential elections, the 2002 legislative
elections and now the 2004 presidential elections. Their ship is sinking yet
the captain desperately tells the crew to focus on how the deck chairs should
be arranged. "147;Don't be wimps," he cries,"The ship is still in good hands.
Trust us."
It
is a pathology where the leaders claim they are for democracy as long as only
they can win. How similar their rhetoric is to that of the People's Republic of
China
(PRC) which claims to be open to discussion and dialogue as long as their
premise is accepted and their foregone conclusion is reached.
It is a pathology where KMT/PFP
leaders refuse to attend the inaugural ceremonies whenever they are defeated
(2000, 2004). In denial, hanging above the KMT Headquarters building is a huge
black banner proclaiming there is no truth; there is no president. Protest
rallies are held with no evidence but the claim they have been cheated.
Distract,
distract, distract. Somehow with all these claims for truth, they believe that
the real truth of the missing four million plus votes will not be discovered.
Yet the numbers refuse to go away.
The
rest of the world sees it. Some of the young Turks in their party, the “Blue
Hawks,” the “567 Alliance” and the “V6” see it. They raise a feeble voice.
Vincent Siew offers himself up as a token step down sacrifice but still there
is no one with enough clout in the KMT to say, "This is madness. The old guard
is beyond hope. Let the captain go down with the doomed ship if he wants. We
can build a new ship."
This
is the pathology of certain limited waishengren, the pathology of the blind
outsider with a sense of superiority that cannot adapt. It is the real reason
for the internal strife in Taiwan. Fortunately not all waishenren have the same
disease.
We are reminded of the man who has lost his job but cannot
admit it to his wife and family. Every morning the man gets dressed as if going
to work; he gives assurances to his family, leaves the house and wanders until
it is time to go home. So the KMT leadership cannot admit to their members that
again as they had on the Mainland, they have lost the hearts of the average
voters. Again, they must find a way to distract their followers. They cannot
let them see that in eight years over four million votes, one third of the
voting public has lost faith in their leadership and abandoned them.
So the KMT leaders tell their members to keep protesting;
the election is not over, it was a razor thin victory; justice and truth will
come; we will find the missing votes somewhere.
The man tells his family to trust him; he will get a
promotion; there is a still a bright future. Some of the family still believe
him but for millions the hand has already written on the wall.
______________________
Copyright: Jerome F. Keating Ph.D.